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  • Moving Toward Accurate Calculation of Risk Without the Use of Calculator

    Predicting the risk of mortality among patients with cardiovascular disease is challenging. Prior studies have demonstrated that physicians are particularly poor at prognosticating among patients with heart failure and acute coronary syndromes. Patients with these disease processes frequently inquire about their prognosis, particularly after a major cardiac event. Providing accurate information in this clinical situation is difficult and could have long-lasting implications for a patient listening at a vulnerable time. Further, the lack of accurate models estimating prognosis makes it more difficult to employ risk adjustment for quality assessment in large populations. This is particularly important as medicine moves toward increasing transparency with greater public reporting of interventional outcomes. A mechanism to improve clinician prognostication capabilities would be welcome.

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